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Bitcoin’s Key Resistance Level
Every week, our team convenes to discuss market trends, and today’s discussion centered around one crucial figure: $82K on the Bitcoin chart. A weekly close above this mark could signal a resurgence of the bull market. Conversely, failing to reclaim this level may lead to further short-term declines. Recently, Bitcoin peaked at approximately $81.4K but fell back to $77K, currently hovering around $78K. The daily candles are tightening, which typically indicates an impending significant movement.
However, the direction of this potential movement remains uncertain. If you’re anticipating a price increase, there are some challenges to consider. Between $81K and $83K lies a significant resistance zone, where sellers have repeatedly entered the market to offload BTC. This level is also close to the 50-week moving average, which stands at around $81.5K. As noted by John, Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range since late January, and this recent rally appears to be an unsuccessful attempt to break back into that range.
If the recent bullish candle had surpassed $82K and maintained its position, it would have been interpreted as a strong bullish signal, suggesting we were gearing up for the next upward move. However, since it faltered below this resistance level, it is seen as a failed attempt. Consequently, we explored potential support levels. John has identified three critical levels: $74K, $71K, and $65K. His bids are currently placed at $71K, but $74K is particularly significant; dropping below this level would mean purchasing Bitcoin at a price lower than its average for the year, essentially at a discount.
Interestingly, the primary factor likely to drive prices down toward this level is not directly related to cryptocurrency.
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Bitcoin’s Outlook Amid Economic Concerns
John’s primary concern does not stem from the Bitcoin chart but rather from the performance of the S&P 500, a crucial indicator of investor risk appetite. Following a hawkish speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole summit, Bitcoin experienced a 2.5% decline. Typically, when stocks falter, the cryptocurrency market follows suit. Currently, the market sentiment is nearly split regarding whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in September. Prior to Warsh’s remarks, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was around 70%.
John remains skeptical, believing that Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have a strategy in place, favoring a decision to hold rates steady—an outcome that would be more beneficial for crypto markets—rather than opting for a rate hike, which would negatively impact them. The date to watch closely is September 15, when the Fed’s two-day meeting begins and the Senate is set to vote on whether to debate the CLARITY Act. Presently, the chances of this act passing stand at a mere 14%. However, as John frequently points out, this could be positive news; if the act passes, it may come as a surprise to the market, resulting in a strong bullish response.
So, where does John currently stand regarding his investments? If Bitcoin closes the week above $82K, he plans to invest heavily, potentially depleting his cash reserves. Should the price dip below $70K, he would likely adopt a similar stance, assuming that the July 1 low of $57.7K will not be breached and that the worst is behind us. In between these two extremes, he prefers to remain cautious. As he notes, it’s wise to wait for the market to demonstrate that it has exited the bearish trend, either by breaking through the $82K resistance or establishing a higher low (any price above $57.7K) before attempting another upward move. Outside of this strategy, he’s selectively investing in altcoins based on their fundamentals rather than solely on technical charts.
I witnessed him execute a trade on Uniswap during breakfast while we were on retreat last week, and I thought, “If I had my cold wallet with me, I would mirror his trade right now. But I can wait until I return home.” Unfortunately, that thought proved to be misguided, as he has already gained 15% on that trade, in addition to the over 30% profits he has seen across his positions in ETH, SOL, and SKY.
(Lesson learned: Pay attention to Mr. Gillen.)
P.S. Don’t miss out on John’s next investment pick—join Milk Road PRO for just $1. You’ll receive his trade alerts in real-time, helping you avoid the situation I found myself in.
Crypto Insights and Industry Updates
Tom Lee notes that AI agents are reportedly purchasing more tokens than human investors in certain models. Michael Saylor commented, “We excelled at selling STRC at 100 and are proficient at buying BTC, but now we’ve shown the market that we can also sell BTC and purchase STRC.” Mike Novogratz described the U.S. debt situation in one word: “Pray.” He pointed out that annualized interest has just surpassed $1 trillion, and the average coupon has risen from 2% to 3.3% in the past three years.
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Daily Memes and Market Humor
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